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<h1>UKHSA Efficacy Stats Death Watch: Week 45<br><small><em>Blessed silence from Humpherson – maybe the efficacy statistics will survive after all</em></small></h1>
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<p class="nav"><span class="nav-left">Listed under <a href="/covid.html">Wuhan Coof (COVID)</a>, <a href="/eugyppius.html">eugyppius</a>.</span><span class="nav-right"><a href="/theme.html">Theme</a></span></p>
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<p>From the <a href="https://eugyppius.substack.com/p/ukhsa-efficacy-stats-death-watch-2ba" target="_blank">original article</a> on November 12, 2021. Author: <a href="https://twitter.com/eugyppius1" target="_blank">eugyppius</a>.</p>
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<p><a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1032859/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_45.pdf" target="_blank">The Week 45 UK Health Security Agency Vaccine Surveillance Report dropped yesterday</a>. Time for The Graph:</p>
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<a href="/files/eugyppius-w45-1.png" target="_blank"><img class="center" src="/files/eugyppius-w45-1.png"></a>
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<p>The report features a new section called VACCINE EFFECTIVENESS PUBLICATIONS (pp. 10–11), where the authors list all their studies showing why the vaccines are super effective at everything – another attempt to appease the statistical concern trolls at the <a href="https://osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/" target="_blank">Office for Statistics Regulation</a>. Meanwhile, the Eye of Sauron gazes elsewhere, as noted imbecile Ed Humpherson announces that <a href="https://osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/correspondence/ed-humpherson-to-scott-heald-test-and-protect-statistics/" target="_blank">he is only semi-satisfied with improvements that Public Health Scotland have made to their test and trace statistics</a>. “I have copied this letter to Roger Halliday, Chief Statistician, Scottish Government,” Humpherson declares. I imagine the Scots will soon call a new independence referendum, just to get away from this man.</p><p>The UKHSA efficacy numbers are still extremely unadjusted, of course. They mean absolutely nothing. Here, for example, are the totally meaningless unadjusted hospitalisation rates by vaccination status:</p>
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<a href="/files/eugyppius-w45-2.png" target="_blank"><img class="center" src="/files/eugyppius-w45-2.png"></a>
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<p>You can’t conclude anything from that; as the report authors say, “People who are fully vaccinated and people who are unvaccinated may behave differently.” We just can’t know.</p><p>And here are the wholly unadjusted 60-day death rates by vaccination status:</p>
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<a href="/files/eugyppius-w45-3.png" target="_blank"><img class="center" src="/files/eugyppius-w45-3.png"></a>
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<p>Again these are just totally meaningless numbers; “the fully vaccinated may be more health conscious,” after all, so the vaccines may actually be doing zero.</p><p>I haven’t consulted Humpherson, but I imagine the raw death numbers, at least, don’t require adjustment:</p>
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<a href="/files/eugyppius-w45-4.png" target="_blank"><img class="center" src="/files/eugyppius-w45-4.png"></a>
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<p>Half of all Corona mortality in the UK is occurring in the 80+ crowd, and 87% of the deaths in that age bracket are fully vaccinated.</p>
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